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Answer:
Black still has, let's say, 5% winning chances here, depending on
which play he makes, and the play does matter.
Coming out with the five is discounted as black can afford to take
the risk of being pointed on or picked and passed, for the greater
benefit of slowing white down and/or hitting a shot.
Black has to be careful with the two. 13/11 seemed the only choice
to me over the board, and I played it automatically.
It is actually far better to play the two in board, the best by a
small margin being 3/1.
I will hazard a guess as to why: Black relies on large doubles to
get the three men presently outside his home board into his home
board. Using any small number to bring a checker home doesn't gain
that much. However, if he does manage to roll a succession of
large doubles and gets the three men into his home board in time
to have a fighting chance, being able to take men off once they
are there is crucial. He just cannot afford to miss after having
done all that hard work. Stacking up men on the 4, 3,2 and 1 point
achieves this goal.
I have to admit I cannot understand why 3/1 is better than 4/3 or
5/3, and would be grateful for an explanation.
18/13 5/3 or 18/13 4/2 or 18/13 3/1: 10 points
18/13 13/11 or 18/13 18/16: 1 point
All other plays: 0 points
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