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Position 1.
In the game I was tempted to play bar/18, but resisted as it
seemed too dangerous. Both 10/5 and 8/3 turn out to be almost
identical. Slotting the 5 point is nice i) if not hit (23 times)
and ii) if you can make it next roll.
Bar/23 10/5 or Bar 23/ 8/3 = 5 points
All other plays = 0 points
Position 2
I like this position a lot. This is a fairly comfortable take at
this score and I suspect also for money. Notice that not
doubling is not a blunder. The position is not that volatile;
white does not threaten to do anything crushing on this roll. He
still only has a two point board, green often comes up to whites
4 point and makes a 21 point anchor. Even behind a five prime,
with an even race, where white has escaped both men, green has
about 25%. Here white still has two men back on green’s ace
point which must be a liability, hence the extra 5% or so wins
for green.
Double/take:7 points
No double/take: 4 points
Double/pass:1 point
All others = 0 points
Position 3
I had this position yesterday in an 11 point match against my
good friend Mr Danny Cohen. I find these very difficult to
calculate over the board. If I pass I go 10-5 down, or I am 6
away crawford and he is 1 away. The match equity charts say that
at 6 away-1away, my chances of winning the match (against a
player of equal skill) are about 11%. I have a lot more than
this here, so surely I should be taking. I stick my neck out
here for the chopping block and boldy aver that Snowie has made
an error. White should marginally play on, but if he doubles,
green should snatch.
Too good to double/take:7 points
Double/take: 5 points
No double/take: 4 points
Too good to double/pass:3 points
All others = 0 points
Position 4
You might be wondering what is interesting about this position.
Not much really. It came up in an online match, which I always
analyse. When I looked through the analysis, Snowie 3 ply made
it a large error (-0.084) not to cube. I rolled it out and the
difference in the two results is massive. I think the feature at
this score is that green needs a certain amount of single game
wins to be able to cube. In the 3 ply analysis, Snowie gave
green about 72% single game wins, here only 67%. With increased
gammon chances as well here, it makes much more sense to hold on
to the cube.
No double/take = 5 points,
Double/take = 1 point
All others = 0 points
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